Full Predictions

2004 09 30

PICTURE :
Alexander
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Ray
Spanglish

DIRECTOR :
James L. Brooks, Spanglish
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Jean-Pierre Jeunet, A Very Long Engagement
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Oliver Stone, Alexander

ACTOR :
Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanada
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Liam Neeson, Kinsey

ACTRESS :
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Téa Leoni, Spangish
Natalie Portman, Closer (I decided to follow kris with this one)
Imelda Stauton, Vera Drake
Audrey Tautou, A Very Long Engagement

SUPPORTING ACTOR :
Alec Baldwin, The Aviator
Rodrigo de la Serna, The Motorcycle Diaries
Thomas Hayden Church, Sideways
Val Kilmer, Alexander
Clive Owen, Closer

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Avaitor
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Very Long Engagement, Jean-Pierre Jeunet and Gullaume Laurant
Closer, Patrick Marber
Finding Neverland, David Magee
The Morocycle Diaries, Jose Rivera
Sideways, Alexander Payne

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Aviator, John Logan
The Indredibles, Brad Bird
Kinsey, Bill Condon
Ray, James L. White
Spanglish, James L. Brooks

ANIMATED FILM :
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Shrek 2

ART DIRECTION :
Alexander, Jan Roelfs
The Aviator, Dante Ferretti
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, Rick Heinrichs
The Phantom of the Opera, Anthony Pratt
Ray, Stephen Altman

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Alexander, Rodrigo Prieto
The Aviator, Robert Richardson
A Very Long Engagement, Bruno Delbonnel
Finding Neverland, Roberto Schaffer
The Passion of the Christ, Caleb Deschanel

COSTUME DESIGN :
Alexander, Jenny Beaven
The Aviator, Sandy Powell
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, Colleen Atwood
The Passion of the Christ, Maurizio Millenotti
The Phantom of the Opera, Alexandra Byrne


FILM EDITING :
Alexander, Yann Herve, Alex Marquez, Thomas J. Nordberg
The Aviator, Thelma Schoonmaker
Finding Neverland,
The Passion of the Christ, John Wright
Ray, Paul Hirsh

MAKEUP :
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
The Phantom of the Opera

ORIGINAL SCORE :
Alexander, Vangelis
The Aviator, Howard Shore
A Very Long Engagement, Angelo Badalementi
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, John Williams
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, Thomas Newman

ORIGINAL SONG : (for now I’ll just include films till we find out all the titles)
Alfie
Closer
Finding Neverland
The Phantom of the Opera
The Polar Express
SOUND
Alexander
The Aviator
The Phantom of the Opera
Sky Captain and the World of Tommorow
Spider-man 2

SOUND EDITING
The Incredibles
Sky Captain and the World of Tommorow
Spider-man 2

VISUAL EFFECTS
I, Robot
Sky Captain and the World of Tommorow
Spider-man 2

TALLY :
The Aviator - 11
Alexander - 9
Finding Neverland - 6
Ray - 6
A Very Long Engagement - 5
The Phantom of the Opera - 5
Spanglish - 5
Closer - 4
The Passion of the Christ - 4
The Incredibles - 3
Kinsey - 3
Lemony Snicket’s Series of Unfortunate Events - 3
Sideways - 3
Sky Captain and the World of Tommorow - 3
Spider-man 2 - 3
The Motorcycle Diaries - 2
The Polar Express - 2
Alfie - 1
Being Julia - 1
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 1
Hotel Rwanda - 1
I, Robot - 1
The Sea Inside - 1
Shrek 2 - 1
Vera Drake - 1

Picture

2004 09 30

NOTE : Later on today I expect to have my full predictions up, with changes since I started the categoy previews. Also expect a mini review of Jaques Tati's Mr. Hulot's Holiday.

THE CONTENDERS :

Alexander
- A epic, in the academy’s favorite style , unless this turns into a major flop , I really can’t see this one not doing well with the academy.

A Very Long Engagement
- With lukewarm reviews for The Motorcycle Diaries , A Very Long Engagement could just be the Foreign flm to watch out for.

The Aviator
- Well we haven’t heard any negative buzz on this one yet , it could just well be one of the few films that has made huge buzz all year round.

Closer
- I don’t think this will quite do what it was expected to do about a month ago.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
- It depends if it’s focus’ major push , if it isn’t it’ll sadly dissapere and not get the credit it deserves.

Finding Neverland
- It seems just like the type of story the academy loves, it’ll most likely make the final five.

Hotel Rwanda
- It could do it, but we won’t really know untill the precurser’s start coming out.

Kinsey
- I don’t think it’ll make the best picture slate, but I haven’t ruled out anything yet.

The Motorcycle Diaries
- With some not so great reviews it all depends on the studio now. It could go either way.

The Passion of the Christ
- I’m still not sold on The Passions chances, it looks like another case where will have to wait for the precursers.

The Phantom of the Opera
- If it’s a hit maybe, but for now , I don’t think it’ll do well here.

Spanglish
- I’m starting to doubt it’s chances, but just for now I’ll keep it in the top 5.

Ray
- Sounds like the type of Bio-pic that the academy likes, and will likely be there on oscar nomination morning.

Vera Drake
- It could be a critical darling , or a critical darling and an oscar favorite, I really have no clue right now.

THE RANKINGS :

1) The Aviator
2) Ray
3) Alexander
4) Finding Neverlabd
5) Spanglish

6) The Motorcycle Diaries
7) Vera Drake
8) The Passion of the Christ
9) A Very Long Engagement
10) Kinsey

Actor

2004 09 29

THE CONTENDERS

Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside
- I doubt the film will have much of a chance anywhere else, but almost everyone is predicting Javier for his second nod. From the current reviews it seems very likely.

Jeff Bridges, The Door in the Floor
- I haven’t bought in to the buzz for him yet, I just don’t think he’ll end up making it in the end. He could but I really don’t think so.

Gerard Butler, The Phantom of the Opera
- Unless the film get’s a BP nod don’t expect it in the acting categries, and if it does it won’t be here because best Actor is s crowded this year.

Jim Cavizel, The Passion of the Christ
- I really don’t think the Passion of the Christ will do that well at the oscars, but if it does expect Jesus to be here.

Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
- I think at this point people are really underestimating his chances , I think he’ll probably make the final five and could possibility win.

Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
- The recent re-emergance of buzz on the film will almost guarentee his spot in my predix for now.

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
- Leo isn’t as a lock as people seem to think he is, he has to struggle to get a nod, but I think Ihe could make it.

Colin Farell, Alexander
- I don’t really think Alexander has to have a nod for Colin if it get’s a BP nod, which I predict to be the case.

Jamie Foxx, Ray
- Well what a role, unless he screws up he almost certainly will get a nod.

Gael Garcia Bernal, The Motorcycle Diaries
- With less than dazzling reviews, the whole of Motorccle Diaries is looking pretty shaky.

Paul Giamatti, Sideways
- Unless he get’s spectacular reviews it’s too croweded to really make a big show.

Jude Law, Closer
- He probably has a better chance in supporting for I Heart Huckabees, this best actor race is way to crowded.

Liam Neeson, Kinsey
- One of the most hyped roles, he probably will get a nod, as long with his co-star Laura Linney.

THE RANKINGS :
1) Jamie Foxx, Ray
2) Liam Neeson, Kinsey
3) Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
4) Javier Bardem, The Sea Within
5) Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda

6) Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
7) Colin Farell, Alexander
8) Jim Cavizel, The Passion of the Christ
9) Jeff Bridges, The Door in the Floor
10) Jude Law, Closer

Mini - Reviews

Hopefully I will have the time to put up some full reviews on my some time. But for now I'm just going to update this with a short note on the film.

GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
2003
- A nice little film , not as good as the book , but still very charming.
8/10

RASHOMON
1950
- One of the truly great films of all time, that's all I have to stay
10/10

Delay

Proof and An Unfinished Life got moved to 2005.

I will leave my predix as they are and I will update them after I finish, Actor, Director and Picture.

Supporting Actress

2004 09 25

THE CONTENDERS :

Lauren Bacall, Birth
- It used to be a sure bet, but now it isn’t looking to likely for Ms. Bacall, I do smell an honorary oscar coming soon though.

Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
- Having not heard much on the performance lately, she still looks to be getting nominated , if the film is still going strong.

Julie Christie, Finding Neverland
- She needs the film to do well with the academy, then she has a battle with co-star Kate. With both of them fighting for one spot it seems a bit unlikely.

Hope Davis, Proof
- Most likely not, I don’t think Proof will get more than a couple of nods, and don’t expect here here.

Minnie Driver, The Phantom of the Opera
- The film will probably make it’s big push in technical categories, still has a outside chance though.

Regina King, Ray
- I’ve heard wonderful things about, however, still not enogh to lead me think she’ll get the nod.

Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
- If this is more than a cameo , she’ll likely be here if Spanglish get’s a BP, if it doesn’t I haven’t thought of that.

Laura Linney, Kinsey
- Getting raves, unless theres a huge scandal involving her she’ll almost certainly be here.

Virginia Madsen, Sideways
- She’s been getting all the early raves for the film, will the critics stand behind her for there pick for supporting actress.

Natalie Portman, Closer
- A good bet at this point , unless the film dissapears from the radar she’ll probably be here.

Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Canidate
- She’s Meryl Streep, but do you really think the academy will honor her for this. I think not.

Barbara Streisand, Meet the Fockers
- I think she would have a better chance if Lilly Tomlin wasn’t in the race, but until the film is released I wouldn’t be suprised to see anything.

Lilly Tomlin, I Heart Huckabees
- I think both her and Dustin will get nods for this, maybe it’s just my love for Lilly Tomlin but I really think they’ll be in for this.

Paz Vega, Spanglish
- Had all the buzz when she was in lead, then when she came here Cloirs Leachman stole all of it , she needs an amazing performance to get back in the race.

Kerry Washington, Ray
- Until the films released we won’t know which one of the supporting actress’ will gather the most buzz, but expect one to be here.

Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
- Even of this film has a better chance at the big award, she has a better chance in lead.

THE RANKINGS

1) Laura Linney, Kinsey
2) Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
3) Natalie Portman, Closer
4) Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
5) Lilly Tomlin, I Heart Huckabees
6) Virginia Madsen, Sideways
7) Regina King, Ray
8) Julie Christie, Finding Neverland
9) Kerry Washington, Finding Neverland
10) Meryl Streep, The Manchrian Canidate

Supporting Actor

2004 09 24

THE CONTENDERS :

Alec Baldwin, The Aviator :
- This is a possibility, but unless Baldwin recieve raves for his performance it’s unlikely that he’ll make it.

Cameron Bright, Birth
- I think it’s very unlikely that he’ll be the next Haley Joel Osment, It’ll take a real good performance for him to get mentioned in categories other the the BFCA young actor awards.

Williem Dafoe, The Life Aquatic
- This performance will probably make my personal ballot of the year, but Wes Anderson missed out with Gene Hackman. He’s not completely out of the radar yet, but judging by the academy’s past I doubt it.

Rodrigo de la Serna, The Motorcycle Diaries
- With the film getting great reviews so far, and if it get’s nominated for best picture, Rodrigo will most likely be here.

David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol.2
- David needs Uma, and Uma looks unlikely.

Jim Carrey, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
- I doubt that Carrey will get much buzz for this, the film probably won’t make the radar in much more than the tech categories. It’ll do good at the box office, but I doubt he’ll be here.

Dustin Hoffman, Finding Neverland
- I heard the role is pretty small (à la Dench) , unless it’s nominated for best picture he won’t be there,

Dustin Hoffman, I Heart Huckabees
- I think Dustin will be able to pull this one off, he has a real chance here. I think him and Tomlin will both be in the final 5.

Anthony Hopkins, Proof
- I heard this is a great role , and Hopkins hasn’t had much buzz in a long time, it’ll be hard for him to have a comeback , but don’t bet against him.

Jeremy Irons, Being Julia
- Not sure on him yet he could go either way.

Val Kilmer, Alexander
- Well Alexander will probably get an acting nod and Val’s it’s biggest chance outside of Colin.

Clive Owen, Closer
- With all the buzz around his performance , it’s hard not to acknowledge he’s the frontrunner. The only thing in this category that seems almost 99% likely.

Adam Sandler, Spanglish
- Has some minor buzz, but he has to learn to leave his persona behind and create a brand new character, which is something he has been attempting , but hasn’t yet broken the barrier.

Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
- I heard that the role isn’t strong enough to get him nominated , but don’t count him out for nominations in the futur, he’s a genius.

Liev Schriber, The Manchurian Canidate
- I thought he weas very good , but it doesn’t look like his buzz will continue through till oscar time. He might but I doubt it.

THE RANKINGS :

1) Clive Owen, Closer
2) Anthony Hopkins, Proof
3) Rodrigo de la Serna , The Motorcycle Diaries
4) Val Kilmer, Alexander
5) Dustin Hoffman, I Heart Huckabees
6) Jeremy Irons, Being Julia
7) Jim Carrey, A Series of Unfortunate Events
8) Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
9) Alec Baldwin, The Aviator
10) Liev Schriber, The Manchurian Canidate

Comments

I'm currently working on the Supporting Actor comments.

But Because I don't think I can have a counter on my site, please if you have any questions or comments please e-mail them to me at jcpnarv@shaw.ca, please include Oscar blog in the title.

Actress

2004 09 18

Here are my thoughts on the best actress race :

THE CONTENDERS -

Anette Bening, Being Julia
- I have to admit that I haven’t really been following a lot of the buzz, from the Toronto Fim Festival, but I have heard that the film was getting a mixed response. I still think even with a mixed response Bening will probably have a nom , a win is still a possibility too.

Laura Dern, We Don’t Live here Anymore
- There have been a fair number of people saying the Laura Dern will get nominated for this film; however, I think it’s unlikely unless she’s starts winning critics awards and get’s nominated for the BFCA.

Nicole Kidman, Birth
- After a huge dip in buzz by Kidman’s performance, there is a lot of Kidman buzz back now, probably after rave reviews. If the controversy (even though it’s stupid) doesn’t over ride the performance, it looks like KIdman might get nomination no. 3.

Téa Leoni, Spanglish
- Téa will likely get a nomination if her film get’s nominated for best picture, it’s the most likely chance for Spanglish in the acting categories and if it get’s nominated for Best Picture, it will almost certainly be here.

Laura Linney, P.S
- I haven’t heard much about the plot of this film ; but, if the word of this film get’s out Laura Linney could score here. Another chanllenge for Linney is weather she’ll get nominated for Kinsey, and if she could go lead in Kinsey.

Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
- Gwyneth is very strong and is very likely to be nominated , a second win is unlikely but not completely out of the question.

Julia Roberts, Closer
- This film looks like it’s not exactly the acdemy’s usual type of film, so un;ess her performance is super good, it’ll need a best picture nomination to go with it. Or she is Julia so she might get nominated anyways.

Emily Rossum, The Phatom of the Opera
- This film could easily go either way, I think we’ll have to wait and see weather Emily Rossum will be a true contender.

Catalina Sandino Moreno , Maria, Full of Grace
- When it came out a lot of people were predicting her to be the new Keisha, however this film didn’t quite muster up enogh support to do that so, right now it’s unlikly byt anything can happen.

Imelda Stauton, Vera Drake
- After rave reviews from everywhere, it looks like she’ll be a contender not just for a nomination but for the win. But remeber the curse of the Venice best Actress (as what happened to Julianne Moore)

Audrey Tatou. A Very Long Engagement
- After the film had solid buzz for awhile it won’t really pick up anymore so this might be it’s biggest chance.

Uma Thurman, Kill Bill Vol. 2
- I really doubt it that Uma will get enogh buzz, to get a nod , but I’m only including her because others seem to predicting her , and just so people know what I feel about her chances.

Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
- Unlikely, but maybe if the buzz is good (see Uma), if there was any justice she would be taking the award home next febuary. She will probably go supporting for Finding Neverland where she’ll have a bigger chance.

Reese Witherspoon, Vanity Fair
- She ain’t going anywhere, but it’s not overl till the nominations come out.

RANKED TOP 10 :

1) Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
2) Annette Bening, Being Julia
3) Imelda Stauton, Vera Drake
4) Téa Leoni, Spanglish
5) Nicole Kidman, Birth

6) Audrey Tautou, A Very Long Engagement
7) Julia Roberts, Closer
8) Laura Linney, P.S.
9) Emily Rossum, The Phantom of the Opera
10) Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Starting up

I'm not quite sure how I get everything on the blog yet, as in colums of links on the sides, but for now I decided to focus on the content.

I've been trying to have a oscar site for a long time now , but I never really had the time, or webspace to do it. Hopefully I'll be able to keep this one up but there are no guarentees. Anyways I thought of having an oscar blog after I saw the Oscarwatch blog (a great site , by the way)

Anyways later on tonight I hope to get my thought on one of the categories hopefully best actress.

-James

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