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2004 09 30

NOTE : Later on today I expect to have my full predictions up, with changes since I started the categoy previews. Also expect a mini review of Jaques Tati's Mr. Hulot's Holiday.

THE CONTENDERS :

Alexander
- A epic, in the academy’s favorite style , unless this turns into a major flop , I really can’t see this one not doing well with the academy.

A Very Long Engagement
- With lukewarm reviews for The Motorcycle Diaries , A Very Long Engagement could just be the Foreign flm to watch out for.

The Aviator
- Well we haven’t heard any negative buzz on this one yet , it could just well be one of the few films that has made huge buzz all year round.

Closer
- I don’t think this will quite do what it was expected to do about a month ago.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
- It depends if it’s focus’ major push , if it isn’t it’ll sadly dissapere and not get the credit it deserves.

Finding Neverland
- It seems just like the type of story the academy loves, it’ll most likely make the final five.

Hotel Rwanda
- It could do it, but we won’t really know untill the precurser’s start coming out.

Kinsey
- I don’t think it’ll make the best picture slate, but I haven’t ruled out anything yet.

The Motorcycle Diaries
- With some not so great reviews it all depends on the studio now. It could go either way.

The Passion of the Christ
- I’m still not sold on The Passions chances, it looks like another case where will have to wait for the precursers.

The Phantom of the Opera
- If it’s a hit maybe, but for now , I don’t think it’ll do well here.

Spanglish
- I’m starting to doubt it’s chances, but just for now I’ll keep it in the top 5.

Ray
- Sounds like the type of Bio-pic that the academy likes, and will likely be there on oscar nomination morning.

Vera Drake
- It could be a critical darling , or a critical darling and an oscar favorite, I really have no clue right now.

THE RANKINGS :

1) The Aviator
2) Ray
3) Alexander
4) Finding Neverlabd
5) Spanglish

6) The Motorcycle Diaries
7) Vera Drake
8) The Passion of the Christ
9) A Very Long Engagement
10) Kinsey